Most of us get up each day and immediately depend upon water. We may brush our teeth, shower or bathe, brew some coffee or otherwise quickly turn to water as an essential ingredient in our lives. But, although we depend upon water for so many needs, having adequate clean water is something that almost all of us in this region take for granted.

Yet fresh water is finite and limited. We can recycle or reuse water within certain restrictions of cost and technology, but it’s not something we can manufacture. We rely either on the fixed amount of water that comes from each year’s precipitation, or we rely on water from wells that depend on subsurface recharge that also has limits.

Mention anything that might be labeled climate change and some people will launch into often politicized views concerning the topic. But, no matter what any reader believes about the reasons for the recent trends toward hotter weather and less of a snowpack, a warming climate is a significant threat when it comes to California’s snowpack-based water supply.

In the 1990s, a congressionally funded “Sierra Nevada Ecosystem Project” study publicized scientific reports about numerous resources, including water. Using historic tree ring records and other data, the scientists found the following:

“… two extensive droughts, each lasting 100 to 200 years, occurred within the last 1,200 years. During the cold phase of the Little Ice Age (about 1650 to 1850) glaciers in the Sierra Nevada advanced to positions they had not occupied since the end of the last major ice age more than 10,000 years ago. The period of modern settlement in the Sierra Nevada (about the last 150 years) by contrast, has been relatively warm and wet, containing one of the wettest half-century intervals of the past 1,000 years,” according to SNEP Vol. 1, Chapter 1, page 8.

In contrast to that relatively recent historical wet period, when many water projects were planned and built over the last few decades, our weather has trended into a drier era. What will the consequences be for foothill counties like Calaveras, or our general region, if we end up experiencing multiple years of truly severe drought? How well prepared are we collectively and individually to get by on far less water?

The driest years in our modern historic record were 1976 and 1977. Those of us who remember that period remember wildfires, dry reservoirs and stressed water systems. Since that time, our region’s population has grown, the demand for agricultural water has risen greatly and downstream water demands by Central Valley and Bay Area consumers have also increased significantly. A truly significant drought would have huge consequences.

Uncertainty about drought is more a question of “When, and how severe?” than a question of whether or not droughts will occur. Droughts clearly do occur infrequently as part of nature’s weather variability.

So, imagine for a moment that money was unlimited and that the goal was to be as best prepared as possible for a drought-caused water shortage. If we had enough lead time and funding, every residence and business would spend the money to switch to top-quality low-flow faucets and toilets, along with drip irrigation landscaping water systems. Inefficient ditch conveyance or leaky pipeline systems would be promptly upgraded or modernized to prevent leaks, excessive evaporation and undesirable end losses. Water conservation would become a mantra to be followed religiously, with high community praise and support given for efficient solutions to prevent water waste.

But obviously money is not unlimited. And, unless the threat of a drought is so unmistakable that drastic measures are mandated, most residential, commercial or agricultural water users won’t voluntarily spend money to reduce water waste. Even when using water wisely and efficiently can save both money and water, most people won’t change faucets, landscape watering, toilets or water use habits unless some highly publicized water-rationing program is required. It is easiest to keep doing what we have always done rather than make proactive changes.

Based on historic weather records, we can be assured that, at some point in the coming years, a significant drought or multiple years of extremely dry weather will create a water crisis. That crisis will certainly be challenging for humans and businesses, but it could be truly devastating for wildlife and aquatic ecosystems. Because human demands on streams and rivers often result in unnaturally low flows for fish, amphibians and waterfowl, more species will be pushed to the brink. The California red-legged frog has already disappeared from most of the region and numbers of foothill yellow-legged frogs, pond turtles and salamanders are gravely diminished. Many of California’s native fish species are completely gone and more are edging closer to extinction. If humans end up squeezing too much water out of the natural systems in a drought period, more native species may disappear. Water ties all species (including humans) together in a web of connections across our region, and a lack of water will clearly affect that entire web.

All of the above provides context for our current situation. We are in a very dry water year that follows two previous dry years. With just a couple of major storms, the snowpack could deepen and make any discussion of a drought seem irrelevant. But if this year’s pattern continues or worsens, water supplies will become scarce.

Since we cannot control the weather, what we can control is how we use water now by making extra efforts to avoid waste. As individuals and families, we all can start to reduce water use. We can also collectively strive to make prudent investments, both individually and as a region, in water conservation and recycling, so if this dry winter worsens, we’ve done as much as possible to be prepared.

Water is a precious, limited resource. This could be a water year that reinforces our awareness of that reality.

John Buckley is the executive director of the Central Sierra Environmental Resource Center. Contact him at johnb@cserc.org.